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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/29/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:51
So he'd throw 60 innings and have an RA9 of 4.50?
9:52
This year's average reliever posted an RA9 of 4.47
Assuming in the hypothetical this is something you could know ahead of time, this would basically be the guy you'd use to preserve 2+ run saves
That would free up the actual good closer to act more like a fireman
So, a modest amount of value
Guest
9:53
I know Kelby Tomlinson isn’t a good major leaguer but he’s definitely the best of anyone who looks like they teach middle school English
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Tell that to Eric Sogard and Mark Melancon
Steve
9:56
JD Martinez has the third highest wRC+ in the league (min 450 PAs), but will probably get little to no MVP support because he was traded between leagues.  He shouldn't win the award, but he still should get more recognition than he will.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
So basically it's the 2015 Yoenis Cespedes argument
Cespedes finished 13th in the NL in MVP voting that season
9:57
Martinez has been worth 2.4 WAR to Arizona. Cespedes was worth 2.7 WAR to New York
Given how many amazing players there have been in the NL this year, I don't think Martinez should finish higher than he likely will
Jeff
9:58
I would just like to observe that every NL playoff team is a WS underdog while every non-Twins AL playoff team is favored (should they make it that far).
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I have a hunch that there's a bug in our WS odds calculations
AL favoritism seems too steep
Da Bum
9:58
We do you take out of the rotation if you are the Cubs? Quintana, Hendriks, Arrieta seem like locks with their 2nd half. Lackey seems better suited for an ace RP role than Lester.
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
I think it just ends up being Lackey
Bagel
9:58
Carlos Correa is on fire. Looks like the Astros offense is getting back to pre-All Star levels at just the right time.
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
With three games left, Astros: 122 wRC+. Next-best team: 108 wRC+
Relative to the average, the Astros have indeed had one of the best-hitting lineups in modern baseball history
Ben
10:00
So far Kris Bryant has 6.4 WAR/600 PA and Bryce Harper has 5.1 WAR/600 PA, however Harper has played more/has 6.2 more total WAR even though he is a year younger. Which one do you think will end up with a higher total career WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
So Harper is younger *and* he has the career WAR advantage by the equivalent of a full season
It's Harper
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
10:02
What a shame that the best pitching matchup of the Division Series will probably be a day game.  Television networks have no problem sharing prime hours between major NFL or NBA events, so why is MLB so dedicated to staggering playoff start times?  Verlander vs Sale (though it could still end up Kluber vs Sale) will be half over before any 9-5ers on the East Coast are home to enjoy it.
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
It's possible that, from a revenue perspective, the NBA and NHL and NFL have it *wrong*
10:03
I don't actually know if that's true, but presumably, baseball and the networks are aware of how much money there is to be gained or lost by staggering or by overlapping
I don't come at this from a fair perspective; I'm a lucky one, in that I get to just watch all this for my job. I realize how shitty it is for the average fan
Jaack
10:04
Remember when Dave Cameron used to stay awake at nights wondering how Matt Cain could consistently beat his FIP.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Pop-ups!
It was pop-ups all along
That and pitching better with runners in scoring position somehow
Colin
10:05
What am I supposed to make of Matt Olson having 24 home runs and only 2 doubles? (Which, by the way, is the second highest HR:2B ratio of all time of players with at least one double)
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Two things. One, lol no way is that even close to for real. Two, Olson has developed some serious power
Marshall
10:07
A lot of articles seem to cast the NL CY Young as a done deal for Scherzer, but how surprised would you be if Kershaw wins?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Very surprised. He's short 26 innings
Massey
10:08
I'm too young to have seen much of Ozzie Smith's glove work, just highlights. However, I've closely followed Andrelton Simmons' career and am in love with his baseball IQ. Who has the better defensive acumen, Simba or The Wizard of Oz?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Here's the thing about Ozzie Smith: he remained a wizard even deep into his 30s. It's like when people compare someone like Kenley Jansen to Mariano Rivera. Sure, I get it, but Rivera was Rivera for something like a decade and a half
10:09
I can't imagine that Smith looked much different from Simmons, at Simmons' age. But let's see if Simmons does this another 10 years. He has the tools and the brain
Unfortunate, a little bit, that Simmons is playing in the era of the shift. He therefore has less ground that he's responsible for covering
Andrew
10:09
Does Kris Bryant have a chance to repeat as NL MVP? I think its ridiculous that some people mention Arenado winning but not KB
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