JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/24/19

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/24/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Hello from ATL back on my normal chat day. Scout is napping nearby after some solid pre lunch zoomies.

1:00

Most importantly, my smoked wings really came out well, but also dabbled in some bacon wrapped ricotta dates and grilled peach burrata the last few days. Gonna try to smoke some ribs at some point this week, too.

on the baseball end of things, some cool stuff dropped today

video from Luis Patino from the Futures Game:

Padres RHP Luis Patino is our 10th-ranked pitcher and 31st-ranked prospect in the minor leagues. Here's our footage from the Futures Game when he sat 96-99 mph w/cut, mixing in a plus slider, at least an average changeup and starter traits, despite his youth (19 y/o) & loud stuff

1:01

lots more of that at that twitter account and @fangraphs in instagram

also we unveiled our dynamic farm rankings and they are very purty after some hard work from Sean Dolinar: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/farm-system-rankings-are-now-o...

all the context you need about how to use those is in the short post

1:02

to your questions:

LLW

1:02

Would you ever, under any circumstances, order soup at a ballpark

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

If I hadn't eaten before, brought no snacks and there was nothing suitable in the press box (almost 0% chance) and it's also near freezing, then I would consider it for warmth purposes. I can't imagine how good a soup would have to be to make me want to eat it at a game. Just so inconvenient and easy to spill when sitting/walking around drunk morons/FG readers.

coffee comes with a top but otherwise is also a warmth option that has some spillable issues

Fangraphs Reader

1:03

Unless I missed something, haven't the Yankees spent more than their IFA pool without trading for more space? How does that work?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

The Jhon Diaz signing never officially occurred, contrary to some reports.

Lunar verLander

1:08

Ken Rosenthal recently reported that there's some skepticism that the Astros have the talent pool to acquire a top-end starting pitcher. I know the Corbin Martin injury & Forrest Whitley slow start have knocked them down, but isn't their farm system deep enough to absorb those blows and still be able to acquire a top-end starting pitcher?

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

Well Whitley probably isn't available even with the slow start. You are selling pretty low on Corbin Martin. Yordan Alvarez is off the table. Kyle Tucker has been fine and we think he'll be good, so there's one piece. Then it's all potential 5's on the 2-8 scale, or no projected 3 WAR types. There's some depth, but I can see the point that there aren't a bunch of top 100 types that could headline any deal. Lots of teams have that issue, though.

RAndoM

1:10

With the retirement of Pat Casey and the pitching coach leaving, do you foresee a drop-off in the caliber of draft prospects from Oregon State?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

Didn't like how they treated pitching coach Nate Yeskie after he passed on some huge jobs and made their pitching program elite. He's now with Arizona.

1:11

But I don't think shuffling the coaching staff around really changes what sort of talent is available to them. Maybe they won't do as well developing/picking the players, but I don't see a fundamental issue.

Jake

1:11

What are your thoughts on George Valera? Still a ways away, but looks promising.

Kiley McDaniel

1:11

We're very in

1:14

Top 10 Teenagers on THE BOARD
1. Wander Franco, 18
28. Ronny Mauricio, 18
31. Luis Patino, 19
34. Bobby Witt, 19
38. Nolan Gorman, 19
42. Marco Luciano, 17
51. George Valera, 18
56. Luis Garcia (WSH), 19
61. CJ Abrams, 18
62. Jasson Dominguez, 16

1:15

Valera has one of the prettier swings in the minors, performance to go with it, potential 55-60 hit and power and a chance to stay in CF for awhile.

That's better than the 5th overall pick in the draft Riley Greene due to the athleticism, but a similar sort of guy

1:16

Greene is 82nd on the top 100 and is also 18

F***** Savages

1:16

What do you think is causing Royce Lewis to be such a poor producer this season? Will this affect his prospect ranking, and how does this affect his call-up date?

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

Covered this on twitter:

it’s easy to look at his numbers & drop him but we/scouts think the offensive fix is mechanical & MIN is letting him figure it out on his own. an algorthim can🔻when he’s slumping and🔺when he does what we think he’ll do. we try to predict the future, not grade the past.

@kileymcd It seems like everyone else dropped Royce Lewis but you. Any thoughts on that?

Clodd

1:18

Do you think we see MLB allow draft picks to be traded soon? Why is it not already allowed? I get the concerns on salary dump deals but that just happens anyways for low-level prospects.

Kiley McDaniel

1:19

The long-standing concerns (Eli Manning-style dictating where you go...which doesn't even happen in football in a much more high profile draft more than once every 10-20 years) were silly at the time and look sillier now. If it doesn't happen in the next CBA, I bet it happens in the next one after that. The next CBA will almost certainly include an international draft with trading of all of those picks and you can trade competitive balance picks in the domestic draft, so it's not a huge leap.

Adam

1:20

What's your thoughts on Noelvi Marte? Can he move up like a Brujan?

Kiley McDaniel

1:21

Not the same kind of guy. Power over hit IF that isn't a runner. With value tied in the bat and young for the level, you can scout the statline a bit. Nolan Gorman is a similar type that made a Brujan-level rise, so look for that.

Koba

1:21

Moniak now outperforming the likes of taylor trammel, has the opinion on his stock risen as well?

Kiley McDaniel

1:23

Important to note that we predicted Moniak would have a strong season by wRC+ because it's league-adjusted but not park-adjusted. Phillies AA Reading affiliate is a bandbox that has propped up org prospects in the past. Doesn't mean Moniak is another org prospect, but the numbers are juiced a bit for comparative purposes, so I'd say they're performing about the same.

Billy Pilgrim

1:23

How good can Tarik Skubal be?

Kiley McDaniel

1:25

Has taken a nice step forward this year and I saw him at the beginning of his time in Lakeland. There isn't a 60 quality there, so it's a depth starter. The stuff bring fringy vs. 55 and command being fringy vs. 55 will dictate if this is more 4th starter or 6th/spot starter/middle reliever. But it's 3 pitches that all flash 50 or better and a lefty up to 96, so it's a nice find for Detroit.

James

1:25

What odds would you put on there being an international draft in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

1:25

2020: 10%
2021: 35%
2022: 90%

Josh Nelson

1:26

What do you need to see from Luis Robert to give him a FV 60+?

Kiley McDaniel

1:27

This goes back to a conversation I have with fantasy baseball dynasty friends that ask me which hitting prospects to pick up when they're promoted. I tell them generally to take the lower K rate because their game translates to the big leagues easier (better performance from day 1) and they'll reach their upside faster, even if it's lower.

1:28

Then a friend didn't want to bug me and assumed using K% as a guide that Lewis Brinson (18% in AAA in 2017) was a better bet than Cody Bellinger (20% in AA in 2016, 27% the year before that).

1:29

In retrospect that seems silly, but you can see there's limits to this approach

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