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Klawchat 10/26/17
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Keith Law
1:00
You can do it your own way - if it's done just how I say. Klawchat.
Keith
1:00
How important a role does a particular team's development capability and track record play in your rankings? It strikes me that the abilities of individual teams to develop talent varies widely and often is underrated when assessing a prospects progress. What teams do you think are better in this area? Does it vary by positions? Any prospects you think we harmed because they were drafted by the wrong team?
Keith Law
1:01
I don't consider it at all. The rankings of players are team agnostic because a player can change orgs at any time.
Deacon Phillipe
1:01
What's your reaction to the Girardi firing?
Keith Law
1:01
Confusion. But I know there may be details we don't know.
Guy F.
1:01
Am I correct to profile you as an index fund guy?  Do you own individual stocks outside what you might get from Disney as part of your comp package?
Keith Law
1:01
I am an index funds guy, period.
Deacon Phillipe
1:01
I've been rooting against the Astros because I hate seeing their blatant tanking rewarded.  I know they were playing by the rules of the game, but they basically made a mockery of 3 seasons worth of games to get higher picks. Even the Cubs never sunk so low when they tanked. (I rooted against them last year).
Keith Law
1:03
I disagree. One, what they did wasn't just legal, it was smart - the rules gave them every incentive to do this. Two, asking teams that aren't going to win anyway to throw away cash on veterans just to win a few more regular-season games does nothing for me. I'd rather see prospects and fringe players get those opportunities. Maybe you'll find a JD Martinez or a Chris Taylor or a Marwin Gonzalez in there.
Chris
1:03
Pax Unplugged will be my first gaming convention.  I'm only able to go for one day (Friday) and was wondering if you had any tips for how to approach it?  I'm feeling overwhelmed by all the options and going solo so my schedule is whatever I make it.
Keith Law
1:04
They can be pretty overwhelming. I'd say leave yourself lots of time to wander the floor and just explore all the new stuff on display, and if you have certain games you love, look for their tournaments or for any free-play sessions. I'll be at PAX Unplugged all 3 days, and on the Saturday (Nov 18) I'll be signing copies of Smart Baseball if you bring yours along.
Jimmy Z
1:04
Keith, (sorry, screwed up and hit enter before asking question): Joe Girardi. 2014 - Yanks have a -31 run differential, yet win 84.  2016 - Yanks have a -22 run differential, yet win 84. 2017 - Yanks are picked by no one to make the playoffs, and in their "2nd rebuilding year" Joe takes them to Game 7 of the ALCS. Am I missing something here?
Keith Law
1:05
I can't believe that this was about Joe's on-field results. I also don't think he can be blamed in any way for their ALCS loss. He made some mistakes, and had some weak spots, but they were legitimately beaten by a better team.
Angel
1:05
Hey keith do you see Albert abreu in the top 100 at some point next season?
Keith Law
1:05
Possible but not likely. Secondary stuff isn't that advanced right now.
Joe
1:05
As someone who spent so much time in recent years scouting many of the guys killing it in the World Series this year, how cool is it personally to see them all come together like this on the biggest stage?
Keith Law
1:06
It's very rewarding to watch these guys reach the pinnacle.
edward
1:06
thanks, keith - thoughts on who the phillies should be looking at for their next manager?
Keith Law
1:06
Someone with a strong developmental track record. Gabe Kapler is on their list, and I know him fairly well, enough to recommend him. (The reports that they'd chosen Dusty Wathan already were not accurate. I don't know where that came from.)
gus johnson
1:07
Do you think a player's salary should be considered in the MVP Voting? To measure the true value of a player, shouldn't we consider both the results AND the cost? For example, Stanton's 6.9 WAR isn't as valuable as Rendon's 6.9 WAR from a cost perspective.
Keith Law
1:07
No. No. Also no.
Chris J
1:07
How do you see the Red Sox setting their lineup with Pedroia out around 2 months? Mookie at 2B? Chavis at 2B? Brock Holt?
Keith Law
1:07
Probably Holt. Chavis is pretty questionable at third, no reason to think he'll be able to go right to 2nd and handle it.
Jimmy Hillman
1:07
Thanks for the chat! Of the two Pirate prospects that were exalted by many in 2015-2016 but had a rough 2017 - Glasnow or Meadows - which one do you think has the better chance to bounce back in 2018 and reclaim some (all?) of that shine?
Keith Law
1:08
Meadows. Health will go a long way for him.
Lyle
1:08
The last several Mariners GMs have generally failed to develop and keep position player prospects (essentially Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino are it for the last dozen years). Everyone else either busts (Ackley, e.g.) or is traded away for pennies (Adam Jones, Chris Taylor, etc.) How do the Mariners go about changing that culture in their system before Kyle Lewis and Evan White arrive?
Keith Law
1:09
They already changed GMs since all that. But also ownership has to say they're willing to take a few years of losing to rebuild it - I think the mandate now is for DiPoto to try to win, and that may mean trading someone like Lewis for major-league help.
Mike
1:09
Bote has been crushing in the AFL but I’ll give that to a SSS and the Arizona climate. A story came out that he has changed his swing over the last couple of years. He is already 24, but do you think he has a chance as a starter?
Keith Law
1:11
Probably a bench guy. Think he can hit some, maybe not enough bat + defense to be more than a second-tier regular at 2nd base, but likely a real utility guy you can plug in at four or five positions.
Brian
1:11
Keith what is your take on Nicky Lopez in the Royals system? Looks to be good defensively at short and has a good approach at the plate. Utility infielder or potential starter? Thanks.
Keith Law
1:12
Outside chance to start. Can hit, can play short. Power is light, approach isn't actually that great. Good instincts, though. Stands out in a weak system.
Evan
1:12
What are your thoughts on the Mets new manager Mickey Callaway?
Keith Law
1:12
He's never managed, so we just don't know. I'm not a fan of hiring managers with zero managerial experience at any level.
jp
1:13
Does the huge number of cord cutters mean clubs are gonna struggle with future TV deals? Seems like a bubble that could burst, but then again, plenty of fans are still gonna want to watch the games.
Keith Law
1:14
It depends on where and whether cord-cutters go for their baseball content. If MLB.tv ends up with a local team option, then that might balance out the revenues - but also provides another chance for MLB to smooth out the revenue gaps between the largest and smallest markets. If 100% of TV revenue came from MLB.tv, for instance, then they could simply divide it equally among all teams. Then the revenue gap would be from attendance and corporate sponsorships, so large market teams would still have an advantage, but much less of one, and maybe revenue-sharing could even go away.
Moltar
1:16
If the Mets don't add Guillorme to the 40 man, he'll definitely get rule-V'd, no? I feel like the glove would play off the bench at the minimum.
Keith Law
1:16
I'm not sure - I wouldn't say it's definite. It might be an 8 glove and a 3 bat. That's not easy to carry.
Dan
1:17
Albert Almora Jr. improved mightily against RHP in the second half (123 wRC+). With his above average defense and ability to crush LHP seems like he’s turning into an above average regular.
Keith Law
1:17
I do think he's a regular.
Ben
1:17
Have you gotten a chance to see much of Andrew Knizner at AFL? How would you compare to Carson Kelly?
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