JotCast | Klawchat 10/26/17

Klawchat 10/26/17

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Keith Law

1:19

Not even close to Kelly for me. Kelly's the same seasonal age and already has succeeded in AAA, with good receiving skills and more bat. Knizner has to catch or he's not a prospect, and I don't think the glove is a sure thing.

John S

1:19

Houston makes the world series. Its rebuild has been marvelous even if not perfect (Aiken, Appel). And... they fire their scouts. What gives? I read that the org wants to focus even more on analytics. Fine and well, but it's not like there is some cap on what can be spent on scouting. Is it an issue of too much information dilutes useful information?

Keith Law

1:20

They believe pro scouting is becoming obsolete. I disagree, of course, but it is their philosophy that trackman data and video 'scouting' can replace it.

Stuxnet

1:20

Its been a disappointing few years for the Texas Rangers, and they look like they have a mediocre major league team with a bad farm system, putting them in a bad spot for the future. Is it time for them to get a new g.m. in place, since it appears the rest of the league has passed Jon Daniels by?

Keith Law

1:21

They won the AL West in 2016, Van Winkle.

Moltar

1:21

Consensus seems to be that Calloway is a good hire, but what kind of impact can we expect to see him make on the Mets' pitchers in the upcoming season?

Keith Law

1:21

I would guess very little, now that he's the manager and not the pitching coach. The latter will be the name that matters to your question.

Amy

1:21

Cora got his gig! What will you do with all this free time? Also, thoughts on how Sox get some power in there?

Keith Law

1:24

I'm thrilled for him. It's a good situation given the solid young core on that roster ... and potentially difficult given some of the personalities among the veterans. Devers has power, Betts showed more power in 2016 than 2017, Bogaerts has power when his hand isn't hurt, I think Benintendi will be a 25-30 homer guy. What they could really use is a power hitter at 1b, but the four big 1b free agents (Hosmer, Santana, Morrison, Alonso) aren't really power bats. I like Sam Travis a lot as a prospect, but I think he's more a hitter for average than for power.

Craig

1:24

I keep thinking back to Brett Gardner's amazing at bat in Game 7 of the ALDS. I was rooting for the Indians, but by about pitch 10, I just wanted the at-bat to be over. If I felt that way watching it, I can't imagine how Cody Allen felt trying to pitch to him.

Is being able to continually foul-off pitches a skill that can be taught? If so, how?

Keith Law

1:24

I think it's a function of hand-eye coordination above all else. That is the biggest thing I didn't see with Pedroia as a rookie (well, that and he was out of shape in September 2006) - he was exceptional at fouling off pitches he couldn't hit, which is how he made that really unconventional swing work.

Jake

1:25

How has Tyler Jay looked in AFL?

Keith Law

1:25

What I saw was great, but I talked to Eric Longenhagen last week and he saw about 2 mph less on the fastball than I did.

Dennis

1:25

Which are your favorite Agatha Christie novels?

Keith Law

1:26

Murder of Roger Ackroyd always stands out for me. I'm nervous about this movie ... the ending of Murder on the Orient Express is so iconic that they can't change it, and I think a lot of people know it, so how will they craft a compelling story where a decent portion of the audience knows the culprit?

Warren for Pres 2020!

1:26

Do you think that whenever Trump's reign of terror is over, we'll see a cascade of books from various current/former WH staff, such as Sean "Puffy" Spicer and Sarah Huckabee "Don't Call Me Colonel" Sanders, detailing their true feelings about the human bottle of Ipecac they're forced to defend and rationalize on a daily basis?

Keith Law

1:26

No question. Once it's safe, there will be dozens of books, documentaries, even some "Game Change" style TV series about it.

Alex

1:26

Keith what do you make of all the coaching/front office changes the Giants have made? From the outside the coaches seem like the least of their problems.

Keith Law

1:27

I'd heard they felt like the clubhouse had gotten stale. Whether that's true, or at all relevant to the on-field performance, is another matter.

RSO

1:28

Is Brett Gardner criminally underrated? He has the 47th best WAR all-time for a left fielder, and was second this year in WAR (ahead of Gary Sanchez) on the Yankees.

Keith Law

1:31

He's spent about 1/3 of his games in CF, which probably skewed those rankings, and I've noticed some centerfielders who play left end up with crazy defensive numbers there because the average at that position is pulled down by the Matt Kemps of the world (hey, we can't play this guy anywhere, so put him in left). His WAR puts him right with Jeff Heath, a player from the 1940s who played in a roughly similar number of games, and whom I'd never heard of till just now.

Dennis

1:31

Are Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh of the Angels top 100 prospects? If not, are they close?

Keith Law

1:31

Jones was on my top 100 already.

Bort

1:31

Hey Keith, thanks as always for your writing and for the chat. If Luis Castillo's changeup continues to be effective against lefties (21% whiff rate, .110 ISO this year) but his fringy slider doesn't improve, do you think he will still be an above-average starter? Do you think he'll be better than Dinelson Lamet, who seems to have a fringy changeup but an effective slider?

Keith Law

1:32

I think I'd rather have the FB/CH guy than the FB/SL guy. You can still get same-side hitters with the CH but it's really hard to get other-side hitters out with a breaking ball (as a starter - lots of relievers do this).

Ron

1:33

HI Keith- Any thoughts on the Twins hiring of John Manuel? Good, bad or not any impact? Do you think Molitor is going to embrace more analytics or still old school? Thanks!

Keith Law

1:33

Very happy for John. I wouldn't say the hiring of any area scout, no matter how good, would have an impact the average fan would see. That's no slight on John, whom I expect to do excellent work for the Twins.

Darryl

1:34

Starting a MLB team from scratch today...who's your 1st pick? Trout? Harper? Correa? Seager?

Keith Law

1:34

Still Trout. All great choices. Machado belongs in the discussion set, though.

Amy

1:34

Do you think Mookie could still play 2b? Is he capable?

Keith Law

1:34

I do, he was very good there, but you'd lose a lot of defense in the OF from doing so.

Matt

1:34

The Cards have put together a pretty nice, cost-controlled rotation ( Weaver, CMart, Reyes, Flaherty). Knowing that young SP can be fickle, how do you think this sets them up for the next few years?

Keith Law

1:35

I don't think that's enough in bulk innings or starter certainty. They can certainly supplement from outside - and you didn't include Hudson or Alcantara, both reasonably close - but that's only a beginning, not a complete solution.

Sam

1:35

Considering the success Altuve is having do you see scouts being more open to not rule someone out because of size or other traditional measures or is he just so far of an outlier that it will have no impact?

Keith Law

1:37

Bregman was the #2 pick in the draft, and wasn't going much later than that anyway, and he's maybe 5'8". Benintendi's no giant. Stroman might be 5'9", Sonny Gray 5'8". Nick Allen is 5'6" and got $2 million (I think) in the draft last year. So teams are open to it. It's just one factor among many - if you're small, but strong, with a sound swing, and play a skill position, you'll still get lots of consideration. Altuve was just so small at 15 that he couldn't even get the Astros to sign him - they cut him the first time from their scout team in VZ and he had to come back the next day with his dad to beg for another chance.

Jesse

1:37

Have you tried Century: Spice Road yet? I think you and your family might really enjoy it. It’s similar to Slendor with maybe a little more strategy.

Keith Law

1:38

I played it at GenCon and agree it's very similar to Splendor, with maybe a little more variation in how you can approach the game. But I didn't think it was novel - it felt familiar to me.

Evan

1:38

Was Avi Garcia’s season a BABIP driven mirage, or is he actually good now?

Keith Law

1:38

Can it be both?

Chris

1:38

Do you have more info on Jhailyn Ortiz, stats looking good and as a Phillies fan never heard of him

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