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Live Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
10:01
Good morning!  My apologies for the unexpected early chat, but I have an eye doctor appointment this afternoon.  Somehow, that sentence was just more exciting than the Super Bowl and the MLB offseason combined!
Elliott
10:01
if Machado and Harper sign for a "bargain" price. What team would it be with?
Tim Dierkes
10:02
My guess in that context would be the Yankees - perhaps a place one or both of them would like to play, but a team that is not desperate at all for them.
Aidan
10:02
Good morning Tim! Are your eyes alright?
Tim Dierkes
10:03
I have always had the worst eyesight!  I'm been using hard contact lenses for about 20 years and I need something better!
Hello!
10:03
Bryce mystery team? who ya thinking?
Tim Dierkes
10:04
OK so we know the Padres, White Sox, Phillies, and Nationals are suitors to some degree.
This is from Jon Morosi last Thurs: Bryce Harper has four active suitors as February nears, source confirms: #Nationals, #Phillies, #WhiteSox, and now #Padres. At least one other team remains involved on periphery, but overwhelming likelihood is he will sign with one of those four clubs.
10:05
So it's perhaps less a mystery team than a periphery team.  If we take Gordon Wittenmyer at his word, the Cubs could be a periphery team, in a "We love the player but can't afford him but please check back with us before he signs" type of way.
10:06
To name a few longer shots as the periphery team: Dodgers, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Cardinals, Yankees, Blue Jays.
10:07
Now if Harper doesn't sign with one of THOSE 11 teams, things have really gotten nuts.
Cardinal
10:07
What are the chances of Bryce Harper signing with the Padres?
Tim Dierkes
10:10
If the reporting is accurate, there's perhaps a 90% chance Harper signs with the Nats, Phillies, White Sox, or Padres.  I'm trying to think of reasons I'd differ from giving each team about 22.5%.  I think I'd dock the White Sox a few points because they have a tougher sell as a club that is finishing a rebuild, plus they could have Machado interest.  I'd give the Nats some extra points, especially because Machado is not an option there.  Padres vs Phillies seems about a wash.  I could see Bryce preferring the Padres geographically, but also preferring the Phils as a slightly better current team (and one that would add players after him to get even better).  The Phils also have a hitter-friendly ballpark, in the event Bryce is after an early opt-out clause.
10:11
Bryce no doubt cares about his legacy, as well, and if he's signing up for 10 years as a Phillie I think he's got a better shot at 600+ HR in his career.
This is a long-winded way of answering your question: 28%
Wait...that's my Phillies number.  I'll put 17% for the Padres.
Demetri
10:12
How close are we to a strike at the end of the CBA?
Tim Dierkes
10:14
This is now a weekly question.  NUGGET TIME!  Word on the street is that Whit Merrifield's camp specifically structured his contract to get as much of the guaranteed money to come before the CBA expires.  Hence a $6.75MM salary in 2021 and then a $2.75MM salary in 2022.  The idea is that they fear a work stoppage and want to make sure he gets paid first.
10:15
So, as minor as that may seem, it does speak to an increasing fear that a strike is a real possibility.
10:16
I really, really hope not though, because imagine how many fans baseball would lose.  Pretty sure there are a bunch who never came back after 1994.
David
10:16
How bout an obligatory JTR update?
Tim Dierkes
10:17
Maybe we can get a resolution before Feb 12, which is when Marlins catchers and pitchers report to spring training?  I think Reds, Padres, Dodgers, and Braves remain the picks, with the Rays seeming less likely.
10:18
Given the specific names popping up with the Reds, we could maybe put them a little closer to the top.  Clearly the Marlins are leaking like a sieve with the intent of creating a bidding war.  The Reds are right to hold out though.  They have a decent catcher.
Tim
10:18
Jim Bowden recently tweeted out there are mystery teams in on Bryce Harper. Who do you think they might be, if true?
Tim Dierkes
10:19
According to multiple sources there are indeed “mystery” team(s) in on Bryce Harper that the public is not aware of…and as many texts/emails & phone calls I’ve made…I still can’t find them…..#Braves ? #Cardinals ? #Astros ? #Giants ? #Angels ? #Yankees ? #BlueJays ? I give up
10:20
I guess if you like the Braves or Giants, as Bowden does, you can add them as mystery/periphery team options.  They are not near the top of my list though.
Kimbrel
10:21
3/48. Is that the neighborhood he ends up?
Tim Dierkes
10:22
The face-saving contract is either 3/52.5, 2/35, or maybe 1/18.5.  Get out of this mess with the highest reliever AAV ever, at least.
Hello!
10:22
Worst record in the MLB for 2019?
Tim Dierkes
10:23
I think the Orioles have this on lockdown, but don't let me influence this poll...
Worst record in MLB in 2019?
Orioles (66.1% | 789 votes)
 
Marlins (19.8% | 236 votes)
 
Tigers (4.1% | 49 votes)
 
White Sox (0.8% | 10 votes)
 
Royals (7% | 84 votes)
 
Mariners (2.1% | 25 votes)
 
Total Votes: 1,193
10:24
Sure looks like the Orioles are the favorite to pick first overall for two consecutive years.
Dipoto's Ragtags
10:24
Are we really gonna be that bad this year? Same projected offensive and starting pitching WAR as last year's 89 win team. With a couple more bullpen additions, could we compete for WC and who do you those men could be?
Tim Dierkes
10:29
Say the second WC is an 85 win team.  The Mariners project as a 73 win team at FG, though seemingly without Kikuchi in the projection, so let's say 75.  Bullpens are hard to project; let's say those are wrong and they get to 78.  Big year from Justus Sheffield, we'll go to 80.  Domingo Santana and Mitch Haniger project at 4.2 total wins.  Let's add 2 more for those guys and go to 82.  Throw in a JP Crawford breakout and a surprise bargain signing of Marwin Gonzalez to help out everywhere, and sure, we're at 85 wins for these guys.  Plus, if things are looking good come July, they could add.
10:30
Could go get a Brad Boxberger, Jake Diekman, Daniel Hudson, Ryan Madson, Adam Warren or two and hope you hit on one.
So yeah, the Mariners have not given you much reason to expect contention, and in fact I don't expect that at all, but a confluence of events could make it happen.
10:31
I could apply that same tortured logic to the Rangers or Blue Jays, I guess.
BirdDog
10:31
Where does Adam Jones finally land? I have my money on the Nationals (tired of waiting for Harper), Padres (same), or the Giants...
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