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MLBTR Cardinals Chat
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Anthony Franco
3:30
Hey everyone, happy to get started with my first of these team-specific chats
3:31
Going to hold these tight to an hour and we've got a number of questions from this morning. Let's get going
Bueno Waino
3:31
Do you expect Wainwright to decide on another year before FA starts?
Anthony Franco
3:32
Yeah given that he's already implied he knows what he's doing -- or at least knows which way he's leaning -- I think we'll have word within the first few days of the offseason
Jayjay
3:32
How does MLB fix the arbitration process? Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty have almost identical stars yet Montgomery's projected salary is twice Flaherty's.
Anthony Franco
3:33
I don't think it's really that significant a flaw in the system. Montgomery has pitched a ton the past three years, Flaherty hasn't
Your favorite guest
3:33
How much does Adam Wainwright get to pitch?
Anthony Franco
3:34
I think if he wants to come back something around 1/15 should be mutually agreeable. It's a bit below where he was at this season but not egregiously so, and he still beats Grienke/Kluber money
Mo Money Mozeliak
3:34
I’m assuming I’ll look within for a new DH, but if I don’t, who could hold the spot?
Anthony Franco
3:35
Think Yepez could hold it down, at least against left-handed pitching. Nootbaar maybe becomes a DH option once Jordan Walker's ready, which could be a couple months into the season if he tears it up at Memphis
Kevin
3:35
Tyler O'Neill for Danny Jansen. Who says no? Jansen has more control but with Kirk/Moreno, they could take the bite on potentially adding 2021 MVP candidate to the outfield. Cards then bank Jansen/Knizner to start the season. Nootbaar/Carlson/Walker/Burleson/Gorman(?) or a FA in the outfield.
Anthony Franco
3:35
This is an interesting one I got asked a few times. Hadn't previously considered it
3:36
I think the Jays would pass. Jansen's obviously coming off the better platform year. Hasn't shown as high a ceiling as O'Neill but he plays the far more valuable defensive position. Even with their catching depth, they'd have to really buy into the 2021 version of O'Neill to do this
3:38
Their current corner outfield mix already skews pretty right-handed too. Springer's their primary CF obviously but could get some more corner time as he ages. Lourdes Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández are low-OBP righty bats. If they first trade one of Gurriel or Teoscar for pitching help, this becomes more interesting
For the record Jansen also has two years of arb control remaining, as does O'Neill
Duffy Scliff
3:38
What will Miles Mikolas’ next contract look like? And will it be with St. Louis?
Anthony Franco
3:39
Significantly dependent on what he does next year, of course. If we assume he has the same season in '23 that he did this year, he should get three years
3:40
Four would take him through age-38, which is very rare for a non-elite SP. A three-year deal with a $17-20MM AAV feels about right though. That's the general range I expect for Bassitt and Eovaldi this winter
Dark Horse
3:40
Great write-up! Do you think the Cards should sign an ace? Monty and Mikolas are free after 2023, Flaherty continues to have injuries/clash with mgmt, and the early playoff exits make clear they lack an ace SP.  Thanks!
Anthony Franco
3:42
I don't think they "need" starting pitching necessarily. I'm bullish on the internal group (more so than Steve Adams, with whom I was talking about this yesterday), but obviously an ace would help and they do have the short-term payroll flexibility to make a run at one of them
3:43
Doubt they'll want to 5+ years on Rodón, but if you're talking about a Scherzer-esque average annual value for two years of Justin Verlander, it's plausible. St. Louis wouldn't be my first choice for that kind of thing, since they tend not to make huge FA splashes, but they're a dark-horse candidate for it at least
Cardsfan
3:43
In a rosy colored scenario the Cards would sign Turner for short , trade for Murphy ( give Gorman, Lieberatore, O’Neil) and add money onto Arenado end of his contract! Is 30 mil for 7 years for Turner, some combo of players mentioned for Murphy and adding another year for Arenado at 30 enough?
Anthony Franco
3:45
Yeah I think you're light on Trea. We like him more at 8 for around $33-35MM per. Gorman/Liberatore as key pieces in a Murphy trade? Not crazy. The A's would want a couple more guys from the middle tier of the system, but I could see that being an appealing starting point
3:46
My guess is tacking on another year and $30MM for Arenado would do it
Scott
3:46
The Cardinals got very little offense from the catcher position in 2022. They really need an upgrade. They may not want to block Herrera so a signing of Contreras or trade for Murphy might not work but what about a trade for Jansen or a stopgap  signing like Barnhart?
Anthony Franco
3:47
Jansen trade makes sense, sure. Barnhart has done nothing offensively either, shouldn't go into the year with him as the #1
Roger
3:47
Do you see the cards landing a shortstop this off-season and if so Who would it be
Anthony Franco
3:48
I got a bunch of this kind of question about the free agent shortstops. Like I said in the outlook, I think it's more plausible if Arenado does wind up leaving. If he opts in or signs a restructured deal, tacking on another contract with an AAV approaching or topping $30MM isn't really how this organization likes to operate
3:49
Any of the four would require a franchise record contract. It's tough to project that, particularly when they do have some middle infield options
Mr.Gorman
3:49
Do you see me being able to handle second base with no shift and my range being in question? Am I trade bait?
Anthony Franco
3:50
Yeah my guess is he gets traded by next summer. I don't think he's an everyday second baseman in a shift-free world, no
Wondering Ivy
3:50
Have the Cards lost faith in Woodford? He has good stats at the MLB level. Why isn’t he in the rotation conversation?
Anthony Franco
3:51
He could be in the mix as a depth guy but he just doesn't miss many bats. Even in the minors, his strikeout and walk numbers are pretty meh. Career big league ERA is fine but the peripherals don't align with it
Pitch clock
3:52
Do you think Gallegos will be close to the same pitcher he was now that he has to deal with the pitch clock?
Anthony Franco
3:52
Ha this is interesting. I doubt it'll make a difference on his performance (clearly the front office also does since they just extended him) but it's a plausible hypothesis
Phillies sweep Cards
3:53
What is the significance of the shocking sweep of the Cards by the Phillies? That just making the playoffs isn't enough, or anything further?
Anthony Franco
3:53
I don't think it means anything. It was two games
3:54
And they should've won the first one. Marmol probably should've lifted Helsley earlier, but it was also just kind of a fluke inning where a defense that carried them all year didn't make the tough but doable plays they needed to. Obviously disappointing, but wouldn't read anything into it as far as building the roster for next season and beyond
Your so DeJong
3:55
Where am I playing next year?
Anthony Franco
3:56
The most likely outcome is just St. Louis but I've talked myself into the Stassi swap with the Angels being possibly mutually beneficial, particularly if St. Louis doesn't land their bigger catching targets early
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