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Jeffrey Todd
2:10
Hey all ... go ahead and start leaving some questions and we'll get started in a bit.
Patrick
2:13
Do you see the orioles extending machado or Schoop or Jones ? Or do you think they are all gone
Jeffrey Todd
2:14
Not particularly likely in my opinion. Machado ... I mean, we all know what he could earn. Schoop has earned a lot already and could hold out for Segura+. And Jones ... well, I guess there's some possibilities there and obviously he's just so closely associated with the org. But how much can they promise at his age?
Cubs Fan
2:14
Are the cubs the team to beat with the addition of Darvish?
Jeffrey Todd
2:14
No.
2:16
It's a big add, don't get me wrong, but it's still the Dodgers in the NL. And I think the Nationals are at least equal to CHC in terms of expectations -- in no small part b/c they could still improve a lot either before or during the season.
(Point re the Nats: they could just decide to add one or two significant FAs, say a starter and a catcher. Or pull a trade now or over the summer. Or even get a big boost from Robles.)
Jacob
2:17
What do you think the Twins would have to give up to trade for Julio Teheran?
Jeffrey Todd
2:18
The reason you're not likely to see that kind of deal is that ATL has little reason to sell him at a discount right now. They need the MLB arm more than they do whatever prospects they'd likely command.
To actually answer your question ... I just have no idea. Feels like we've been debating Julio trade value for 3 years now, because we have, and it still just isn't at all clear to me how he's valued around the game.
Curt
2:18
Do you like the Cashner deal?
Jeffrey Todd
2:19
It's about market price for him. For the O's ... I mean, hey, if you just need a #4/5 type of starter, what else are you going to do? But it sure doesn't vault them into Red Sox/Yankees territory, does it?
Still work to do, obviously, with the Baltimore rotation.
Darrell
2:20
I think I heard you and your wife had another kid. I just wanted to say congratulations!
Jeffrey Todd
2:20
Why thank you Darrell, yes we did. Third and final!
2:21
(And now my other two are shouting in the other room and distracting me.)
James Franco
2:21
Can the Rays send Span anywhere for salary relief?
Jeffrey Todd
2:22
I mean... it hurts a lot that he just can't really play CF any more, at least on a regular basis. But he can still hit and would at least look like a pretty darn useful 4th OF. So yeah, I think they can save some money, though they'll likely have to hang onto some cash as well.
2:23
Remember, quality 4th OF types can cost up to ~2/14 on the open market.
Not Brad Peacock
2:23
With Chase field introducing a humidor, should all fields do the same to keep equipment level across all stadiums?
Jeffrey Todd
2:24
Everyone should play in identical, temperature and humidity regulated domes with robot umps and no fans that could represent a distraction.
2:25
Look ... I think it's fine to consider things like humidors to take the edge off of really extreme situations. But I think all the little elements of character that go into baseball, including park differences, are key to its charm. That's why they play 162 games -- all the small advantages here and there level out, with the cream rising to the top.
2:26
And then all that gets blown up and there are a bunch of non-representative postseason series.
Macho Man Randy Savage
2:26
What would you predict Lance Lynn and Cobb's contracts end up looking like when they sign based on what has happened with free agents this year?
Jeffrey Todd
2:27
I think my expectations are moving more toward a little higher AAV and perhaps a year less than anticipated, but with guarantees still mostly in range of what we anticipated. Otherwise I don't see cause yet to downgrade the market generally. (Some specific cases are different, of course.)
2:28
In this case, we predicted four years and like 12-14 mil annually for these guys. Maybe there's a higher likelihood they are at 3 years? But I still think they land in the general range of contract we guessed.
Theo
2:29
What do I need besides a leadoff hitter?
Jeffrey Todd
2:30
The Cubs don't need a leadoff hitter. They are not going to add anyone who is a better option there than someone already on the roster.
Ryan B
2:30
Any chance the White Sox take advantage of the slow market and do a 1 year deal for a top free agent that they can then flip?
Jeffrey Todd
2:31
I'm not real sure I see any top guys having to settle for a straight one-year deal. Remember, there was lots of hand-wringing over LoCain and he got 80 mil.
2:32
That said, the White Sox look like a good fit for Moustakas. Maybe there's a mini-Cespedes deal (3 years, opt out after year 1) to be had? Maybe something like $40MM +/- 10? Just spitballing.
2:33
Or maybe they'd only have interest if they just got a bargain 3-year deal with someone like him. Not sure it'd be worth that kind of risk with plans only to flip the guy.
Twins fans
2:33
At this point, wouldn’t the twins be better off signing someone like Garcia and Tillman rather than dumping a bunch of money into Arrieta or cob? Then using those savings to extend someone like Buxton and or burials?
Jeffrey Todd
2:34
I mean, every future dollar committed elsewhere does impact potential extensions, but I don't think a hypothetical Buxton deal is really a major consideration right now. Twins can go cheap on the rotation, sure, but less quality on the staff means a lower chance of catching up to the Indians or snagging a WC.
2:36
Tough thing is that they have such a tall order in the division and that there's likely to be quite a lot of competition for the wild card. It's funny math on the cost/benefit. That said, while they do have a couple of interesting younger guys, the rotation is such a glaring need ... how do you not go ahead and make an investment?
Dan Duquette
2:36
I got Cashner... Is Jason Vargas or Jaime Garcia enough to make my team a contender?
Jeffrey Todd
2:36
Adding Cashner, Vargas, and Garcia might move O's projections from like 78 wins to 82 wins. Maybe.
2:38
But every bit helps, right? Assuming that whoever of Yanks/Sox doesn't win division takes a WC, that's going to leave an awful lot of AL clubs fighting for one spot in the play-in. As just noted ... the math is tough for some of these teams.
Cashman
2:39
Does Clint Frazier for Sean Newcomb make sense for both sides?
Jeffrey Todd
2:39
Kind of an interesting idea. Let's see what the crowd thinks.
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