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Nationals Outlook '23
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Anthony Franco
4:29
Hey all, hope you're well!
Chat #2 for me this week, let's talk Nats
Elwood
4:29
Ruiz hasn't really progressed this year. Do you think the nationals regret the extension, or are they happy to have a league-average catcher locked up?
Anthony Franco
4:32
I think it's still ok. Salary never gets above $9MM, which is basically average catcher money. He still has some way to go to even get there, but he's young enough that it should still be on the table
Ethan
4:32
Is there any chance the Nationals can make a play for Yamamoto? The positional depth in the farm system is among the best in the league while pitching depth is closer to the bottom. A young arm such as him would get a year to adjust to the MLB before the Nationals could compete in 2025
Anthony Franco
4:33
He's young enough that you can find him on any rebuilding team from a timeline perspective, but the incentives are higher for a win-now team to drop $200MM (maybe more) on him than they are for a non-contender
Jorge78
4:33
The Nats owe money to Strasburg the next few years.  What of those amounts has already been applied to the CBT?  Just the deferred money?  Any chance he may unretire?
Strausburg Fan
4:33
How do you think the Strausburg situation ends? It seems so weird.
Anthony Franco
4:34
The deferred money is "paid" for luxury tax purposes during the term of the contract. It won't carry past 2026
4:35
It's a bizarre situation that just seems like an unforced error on the organization's part. He clearly can't pitch. I'm not sure what the endgame is in keeping him on the roster
4:36
I don't think it really matters right now. It's still a shallow roster overall, they're not hurting for spots at the back end yet. But by the end of next season as they start to integrate more of their prospects into the mix, I imagine both sides will want to negotiate some kind of retirement agreement that clears that spot
Matt
4:36
The Nats don’t have any true 1B prospects in their system - unless you count Yoyo Morales who is still playing 3B for them at the moment. Do you see Rhys Hoskins as a fit for them this off-season as they try to ramp up and “contend” in 2025?
Anthony Franco
4:37
I think Rhys is probably taking a one-year deal that allows him to get back to free agency after a healthy season
4:38
If the Phils don't QO him and the Nats want to throw him $15MM in hopes of flipping him midseason, it'd make some sense. I'd be surprised if Hoskins took a straight two-year deal though
Chris
4:38
Speculation as to whether the Lerners are willing to spend and to what amount. Rizzo has usually liked to be "a year ahead" with his free agent signings (Werth, Scherzer). Would this be the offseason for a big move?
Anthony Franco
4:40
Still feels like it's a year away from that. Maybe they take a shot on a rebound flier for a mid-tier starter with upside (Jack Flaherty, a two-year deal for Tyler Mahle while he rehabs from TJ) to add some ceiling to the 2025 roster, but I don't think they're positioned to leap towards the top of the market yet
4:41
They were firmly in contention when they signed Scherzer. Werth was a step ahead, so it's more analogous to where they're at now, but that was more than a decade ago and it's an easier step to take with a position player than a pitcher
4:42
This year's market is so light on hitting that the prices for the top couple guys will probably be inflated. I don't think this team's a Matt Chapman away from contention
Dave
4:42
Surely the Nats could get something for Robles as opposed to just non-tendering him? Before he was hurt, he was hitting .299 and playing his usual above average defense.
Anthony Franco
4:43
Eh he hit reasonably well this year but it's a very limited sample after three years of doing nothing offensively
4:44
If you want to argue they're better served keeping him and giving him another crack in CF, that's understandable. I don't think there's much trade appeal though
Guest
4:44
Should I be worried by Crews' 73 wRC+ in AA, or just accept that it was 20 games?
Anthony Franco
4:45
20 games at the tail end of a season in which his college team played through the postseason and won the national title. Guessing he just got worn down a little bit, not concerning at all
Boii
4:45
Non-tender flier the Nats take and flip at the dead line?
Anthony Franco
4:46
Mentioned a few in the outlook I could see as possibilities. Maybe Austin Meadows? It's tough to project where he's at since his last couple seasons have been sidetracked by anxiety issues
Randy
4:46
any chance they could come to a long-term extension with Lane Thomas? what would that look like?
Anthony Franco
4:48
He's in the $30MM range for me. I think the $47MM that Randal Grichuk got from the Blue Jays a few years ago -- which looked like an overpay on day one -- is the upper bound of what I'd find plausible
If his camp is pushing for a number in that range, I'd probably just play it out through arbitration
2019babyshark
4:48
If you were Rizzo, what top of the rotation pitching talent would you target in the next few offseason (not necessarily 2024, but maybe 2025 and beyond) ? Seems like even if the young core blossoms they will need to acquire better pitching to compete if they hope to have a contention window in the near future
Anthony Franco
4:49
We'll see how the platform years go, but guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Fried and Buehler are all on track to be free agents next winter
It should be a deep class
Guest
4:50
Any chance Dom Smith isnt on the opening day roster? I am so tired of watching him play. 600 ABs and 44 RBI in the middle of the order
Anthony Franco
4:50
I wouldn't tender him an arbitration contract
Joey Meneses
4:50
I play 1B.
Anthony Franco
4:51
More of a DH. Could play first base, but he's also not a clear everyday player. I wouldn't hold off on pursuing a first baseman because of Meneses
Guest
4:51
Do the Nationals have any assets of trade appeal/worth trading this winter?
Eric
4:51
Outside of Finnegan, Rainey & Harvey, what does the 2024 opening day bullpen look like?
Anthony Franco
4:52
Related questions since I think the guys Eric name-checked are probably the top realistic trade possibilities for Washington. Could throw Thomas in the mix as a long shot if other teams feel really squeezed by the lackluster free agent market for hitting
4:53
As for the bullpen, I imagine Robert Garcia has pitched his way in there. Jordan Weems as well
4:54
Then they'll probably add a waiver claim or two and sign a mid-level free agent like Phil Maton or Luis Garcia
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