JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat | 11/10/2016

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

3:06

Hey y'all! It's November, stupid winter is coming, but we have the Hot Stove to keep us warm!!

ICYMI: this post has pics of a draft board for a league I participated in last weekend - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-402-doug-thorburn-sammy-reid/

Matt

3:06

Taillon or Aledmys in dynasty rebuild? Thanks

Paul Sporer

3:10

I really like Taillon, but when things are close, I lean toward the hitter. Diaz showed some impressive skills and I think we can believe him as a plus hitter going forward

LJ

3:12

Who's the worst starting pitcher you would feel comfortable making your ace this year? Last year I waited until Carrasco and that didn't pan out for me.

Paul Sporer

3:13

I took Carrasco in that draft I just referenced as my #1 and I'm happy with it. I would've been OK with Strasburg, Archer, and deGrom as an ace, too. They all went shortly after I took Cookie Carrasco

Dave

3:13

Please rank these P prospects: Dillon Tate, Erick Fedde, Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield

Paul Sporer

3:15

Sheffield, Fedde, Adams, and Tate

Dave

3:15

Can AJ Pollock approach his season of two years ago or is the elbow injury a concern going forward?

Paul Sporer

3:16

There's some concern any time there's a major injury, but I have confidence in Pollock coming back at a high level. I see him as a top-4 rounder

Alex

3:16

Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. Who are two guys you think can make the leap into the first rd in '18 (like pollack did two years ago)

Paul Sporer

3:22

Gregory Polanco has shown elements of a first round level. it would take a BABIP surge in addition to pairing his '16 power and '15 speed, but he has the speed and last hit the ball hard enough consistently to push something like a .330 BABIP.

It requires growth, but any answer to this question will do so or else they'd already be in the first-second round (for example, Trea Turner is too obvious an answer even with his tiny sample of work bc we saw how elite he can be)

3:25

Trevor Story is another. He's shown SB talent better than his 8-for-13 MLB debut and he doesn't need to even run THAT much if that 40+ HR pace we saw last year is legit (and I think it is). The real key for him becoming a 1st rounder is the AVG. Coors does a lot there and if he just cut SOME of the Ks and hit closer to .285 or so, then 40 HR/15 SB with good R/RBI is enough, especially at SS

Kyle Schwarber

3:25

What are your expectations for Schwarber next season? Full-time OF or a platoon? Will he gain C eligibility?

Paul Sporer

3:28

I wouldn't BET on him to gain C, but I'd never say never -- especially with Maddon. I think he'll be a full-time OF (though he could lose late-game ABs to defensive replacement when things are relatively in hand).

TROUT2016

3:28

With 3B so deep, is Castellanos a keeper in 5x5 otto for $6?

Paul Sporer

3:28

Probably a bit on the border given the depth and the fact that he likely won't cost too much more at auction, but if it's not a BAD keeper by any stretch

Bregman

3:28

The pitcher I should target in an Alex Bregman trade is _______________________.

Paul Sporer

3:29

....

that's really difficult to answer with ZERO other context factors, but I'll say Carrasco or maybe Aaron Sanchez

Vince

3:29

Where are you on Carlos Martinez? I think Eno said he flies open too much. Correctable?

Paul Sporer

3:30

Correctable sure, but it's not a new issue so I'm not sure we should be super confident that he'll just change

3:31

There's still a lot to like even with the flaws which just speaks to his overall talent. He didn't get much love for his '16 which was essentially a repeat of '15 minus some Ks

Anthony

3:31

2017 over/under IP projection for Thor?

Paul Sporer

3:32

I think you set the number at 180. I'm not running away from him, even with the barking elbow, but I can't put 200 IP down in ink confidently

Kloppo

3:32

How productive do you think Jose Bautista can be? Is he looking into the abyss or is he in store for some Ortiz type magic?

Paul Sporer

3:35

Discussed this with Doug and Sammy on the latest pod and we all came out pro-Bautista. There is a general ageism in fantasy baseball bc no one wants to be left holding the hot potato, but I think the price has dropped enough that not rebounding is built in. With health, he's back at 40+ HRs.

Bobby Blownilla

3:35

Do you think Billy Hamilton takes a step forward this year? Thinking of buying him in an OBP league and need the speed

Paul Sporer

3:36

I dunno, I think he kinda took his step this year. Maybe he squeezes out a handful more hits and pushes toward .275, but I'm pretty meh on him as an empty SB guy

David

3:37

Tell me we were a year early on Correa and this is the year he blows up. (And then let's keep it between us.) You like him or Seager more for 2017?

Paul Sporer

3:38

The thing is, he was still pretty fantastic last year. Expectations were obviously through the roof last year, but it's not like he weighed teams down. He played through some nagging injuries, but I'm unchanged on my outlook of him as a superstar. I'm taking him ahead of Corey Seager.

Andrew

3:38

Pollock/Blackmon/S. Marte for 2017? Different for points league vs roto? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

3:39

I have Blackmon first in that group unless he leaves Coors. Not sure there's too much difference between the formats because all three are such across-the-board performers

Ben

3:39

do you see a bounce back season from Maikel Franco?

Paul Sporer

3:42

Well it was his first full season so anyone just doubling '15 had it wrong from the jump. This is why you can't just extrapolate small samples. I think all told it was a pretty solid season for Franco. I know his 96 OPS+ was uninspiring, but 25 HR/88 RBI on a bottom feeding team wasn't too bad. Another great example of how Spring Training stats shouldn't be used too heavily

Hoopster

3:42

What are your thoughts on Harvey and G Cole for 2017? Would you keep them in an NL only 5x5 league at $13 and $16?

Paul Sporer

3:43

I'm out on Harvey for now. I know I was one of his biggest supporters this year, but Thoracic Outlet Surgery has a spotty record (albeit with a relatively small sample, especially compared to TJ) so I need to see him first.

3:44

I'm more inclined to go with Cole, though 2 elbow inflammation DL stints are worrisome. We're hearing it'll be a normal offseason and he'll be ready for '17. It's a risk, but $16 in an NL-only isn't egregious.

Ben

3:44

pick 1 for next year: Keuchel or Stroman

Paul Sporer

3:44

Stroman

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