JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

2:16

It's Friday the 13th! AHHHHH!!!

Let's talk some baseball

Minty

2:16

Cotton or Honeywell, this year and then beyond?

Paul Sporer

2:18

Cotton this year for sure. I'm not sure Honeywell will pitch much in the majors this year. He's only 22 and has peaked at Double-A thus far. TB slow roasts their prospects

Minty

2:18

Do we even see Honeywell in the majors this year because of the way the Rays promote guys?

Paul Sporer

2:18

See, you answered your own question :)

Tom

2:18

Would you move Joc Pederson for Jon Gray in a long term keeper?

Paul Sporer

2:19

I would not. I love Gray and think he can overcome Coors, but I'm also a big Joc fan and when it's close between 2 players, I lean toward the hitter. I still think there is another level to Yung Joc beyond the big power/low AVG we've seen thus far

John

2:19

If you were to jot down a list of the likely consensus top 20 SPs for 2017 right now, which of them are you most concerned about going into the season?

Paul Sporer

2:20

We can just use the NFBC ADP for now: http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=SP and it's Hendricks. I'm known to be down on him compared to the market. It's not that I think he sucks, but I think he's at the mercy of balls in play so there is more volatility than I think is being baked into his price

Jay

2:20

12 team auction mix league with some traditional stats, what's too much to pay for Trea Turner?

Paul Sporer

2:23

That's always a tough question because markets vary so much. I personally wouldn't want to pay much more than low-$30s and even that feels a little crazy typing it out, but he's a second round pick which is usually around that price point

Heal the World

2:23

Will the acquisition of Plouffe have any negative effect on my man-crush, Ryon Healy?

Paul Sporer

2:24

It could a bit, yes. Eno and I dove in on that and that was the conclusion we came to. It might not even be via playing time, but rather pushing him to DH which on average eats 10% off a statline. Still very excited, but it does factor into the mix

Tony the Tiger

2:28

I was super excited when Michael Fulmer was called up last season. His first few starts were rocky, but I remember marveling at how composed and determined he became after giving up runs to start an inning. I don't know that I had ever seen that kind of moxie in a rookie before, let alone many players really. Not a question I guess, but would love to hear your feedback. Thanks.

Paul Sporer

2:31

He really took off when he started to trust that changeup more and it started in that TB start. It was so impressive to watch. I think his ability to adjust belied his young age. His ERA could definitely push toward the mid-3.00s if he keeps the same skills and his LOB%/BABIP regress, but I think there's also a scenario where he adds Ks and offsets some ERA regression

Martin

2:32

Cotton, Luke Weaver or Alex Reyes for 2017.

Paul Sporer

2:36

I think Reyes will be a little rocky given his control issues, but I still have him slight ahead of Cotton right now. That could change after I do more research on both, but just looking at my initial rankings, it's Reyes, Cotton, and Weaver. Reyes and Cotton are 6 spots apart which is why I gave the disclaimer that it could change. 6 spots is nothin'!

YKnotDisco?!

2:36

Freddy or Jason?

Paul Sporer

2:38

Jason. Freddy's face is just so jacked

AKA22

2:38

Pick 3 of 5 options for $1 NL Only guys to keep (or 2 to drop i suppose)... Peraza, Desclafani, Schebler, Inciarte, Shawn Kelley. (Story and Freeman will be other ones kept if that matters)

Paul Sporer

2:40

I *feel* like Wash will get someone for closer ahead of Kelley, but if you have a later keeper deadline date and he's still the guy, then I think he gets a slot. Peraza and Inciarte are the other two!

A's fan

2:41

Hi Paul. Hope you had a great week. You were kind enough to answer my question last week in regards to the value of Khris Davis in an 11-team $260 AL-only league. You threw out $24 as his value, which ironically enough is exactly how much I can keep him at. To keep him puts me right up against the cap and means I would be cutting bait or trying to deal a $6 Sandoval and $8 McHugh. Which side would you rather keep? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

2:42

Between those two, I'd rather gamble on Pablo at $6. I just don't think he's toast at age-30. That bat has some life left, IMO. McHugh is a WYSIWYG guy, which is fine, but you can probably get him around $8 in auction. And if not, spend that money elsewhere on someone with more upside

Nick

2:42

Hey Paul, Keep forever which side do you take? Benintendi + Austin Meadows / Trea Turner

Paul Sporer

2:45

That's a pretty fair deal. I think I'd lean Turner

Pops

2:45

Where do you see Benintendi batting in the Red Sox lineup on opening day? I don't want to be too much of a fanboy here, but there are few players I'm more excited to own next season than him right now.

Paul Sporer

2:50

Roster Resource slotted him at #2, but I'd be surprised if he was there from day 1. I feel like it'll go more like Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Hanley, Bradley, Beni, (Bradley/Beni could flip) Sandoval, Moreland, Leon

Cronut Burger

2:53

You can go into your AL-only keeper league season with a significant competitive advantage in starting pitching, or deal an ace like Verlander or Kluber for a cheaper Lindor. Assuming you currently have no middle infielders being kept, yet care about nothing but winning the title this season, what would you do?

Paul Sporer

2:54

I'd move JV for Lindor. I think still having an ace in Kluber is a nice advantage as there just aren't that many AL aces. 2 would be nice, but Lindor is worth making the move

Pablo

2:54

I've heard it said that it's a good strategy to punt SB in a H2H league. Do you agree?

Paul Sporer

2:55

It certainly can be viable. Most any strategy CAN win, it's just a matter of execution.

Al Bundy

2:55

I'm working out the final touches on a trade in one of my keeper leagues. We're debating on the last piece that will be coming to me, either a few auction dollars or a bunch of free agent dollars for next season. How do you value $1 auction versus $1 free agent, and which would you rather accrue before going into the auction?

Paul Sporer

2:55

I would rather have the FA bucks, tbh. There's a little more certainty in-season so I think they are more valuable than the auction bucks

ryan

2:56

Where are you drafting James Paxton? Top 25 at year end? Still in sleeper territory?

Paul Sporer

2:59

I'm eyeing him in the teens rounds. I got him in the 16th round of a 15-team mock this week: http://www.couchmanagers.com/mock_drafts/?draftnum=39416 -- Top 25 would be an amazing breakout year, but I'm certainly targeting him. He could become what I call a "Wide Awake Sleeper" where he's on so many lists that he's no longer a sleeper, but I think even at the high end, he'll still be a double-digit rounder, which I'm comfortable paying

Starting Rotation help

2:59

(12 team/roto/full keeper) Hey Paul - I need some Hitting help and have a bunch of young pitching I'm thinking about flipping. I have Kershaw as my anchor, but who do you think I should try to move out of: Berrios, Manaea, Snell, Rodon, Joe Ross, Vince Velazquez, Jon Gray.

Paul Sporer

3:00

I'm not sure the market will give you as much for Berrios and Snell right now (but your league may be different). I feel like Gray or VV will draw the most in the open market

Tom Waits

3:01

Closing time: are both Wade Davis and Seung Hwan Oh top 10 closers this year?

Paul Sporer

3:02

I definitely have Oh there and Davis certainly could be with health. There's just the forearm risk hanging overhead that scares me a little bit

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