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PHR Live Chat: 04-29-21
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Gavin Lee
6:00
Hello and welcome to my NFL Draft chat!
No I'm just kidding, but who else is excited for the draft tonight?
I'll let some questions (hockey or otherwise) come in and get started in a few minutes.
6:07
Okay first of all, Matvei Michkov just hit a lacrosse goal at the U18s
6:08
That's 16-year-old, not draft eligible until 2023, just broke Kucherov's U16 record, Matvei Michkov
What a player
6:09
Will be fun to watch his development over the next little while
Spaceman
6:09
Boston now the favorite to come out of the East (Hall clicking and Rask best goalie of the bunch)?
Gavin Lee
6:09
The favorite? No, I don't think you should go that far, even though they're playing well.
6:10
It's a war there, and they probably won't have home ice
Mike
6:10
Apparently reinhart to centre is paying off and with  cozens and even Mittelstad, more likely eichel will be dealt in the off-season? And if u had to guess where?
Gavin Lee
6:10
The Rangers and Kings are still the most likely landing spots
I don't really think those other things have much of an impact on Eichel staying or going
6:11
You don't trade him because Reinhart can play center, you trade him because it will help your rebuild
DW
6:11
What are your thoughts on Barabanov? Does he have a future with the Sharks?
Gavin Lee
6:12
Honestly I think he's a fringe NHLer that is getting an opportunity with excellent players
He might have a future as a depth player for San Jose, but don't expect him to be playing on the top line
Or at least, not if they want to compete for the playoffs
Mike
6:13
How do you fix the problem is Philly? Or is this bad year just a fluke.
Gavin Lee
6:13
I don't really know how to fix it
You had a strong core surrounded by lots of young talent
And then suddenly the young talent just fell apart completely
6:14
I don't really know how to fix that other than spending a little on depth and then trying again
Hart, Patrick, Lindblom, Konecny etc etc all need to be better
6:15
There is still lots of talent in the system, maybe you move out some guys for fresh starts, but I'm not really sure
Guest
6:16
The NFL draft always is full of trades and deates about draft pick value charts. Is there a good NHL draft pick chart? I know of a couple, but they don't seem to be very accurate.
Gavin Lee
6:16
Something like this?
6:17
GSVA here is Game Score Value Added over first seven seasons
Drafy chart
6:18
Yeah, it seems to lack nuance and just lump entirely rounds together. Is that really how team view the picks?
Gavin Lee
6:18
I'm not really sure what you mean by nuance
6:19
I don't think the round matters very much to a savvy front office--the number does
pick 95 isn't that much different than pick 89, even though they're in different rounds.
Drafy chart
6:19
For example, picks 140 to 204 seem to have the same value.
Gavin Lee
6:20
Yep, that's the determination that many studies have come to when looking at the NHL draft.
The curve is like this
6:21
So once you get past the first couple of rounds, the likelihood of NHL impact is basically the same
It's why you see some more analytical front offices trade a 5th for a 6+7 for instance
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